Same Gurus, Same Silliness

If we were smart, we would fully discount what the Gurus are saying. They are about as clueless as the paper boy, but far more irritating. They continue to pretend they know what they are talking about, even when they change their projections weekly if not daily.

When things were going well and the market went mostly up, everyone hung on the words of the Market Gurus, whether they were in the papers, on line, or on CNBC. They all assured us that the market dynamics ruled, that new highs were always just around the corner, that the data were aligned in expected and predictable ways. Just follow their wise sentiment, they counseled, and all would be good.

But things didn’t go well, the market didn’t act predictably, logic certainly did not rule. But the market gurus were right there getting it as much wrong as right, all the way down. And, the amazing thing is that we are still hanging on their words. It is comforting to think, we tell ourselves, that someone knows whether we have hit bottom, which sector might rally first, what is really happening to the financials, etc., but it is a fool’s journey. At least it is one when following the same crowd and listening to their ever-changing opinions and advice.

I, personally, am very tired of listening to their confident predictions when the market shows some signs of life, followed invariably by their equally dim view of things as soon as it turns south. They just have no idea what is happening, and this goes for the best as well as the worst of them.

We need some new faces and new thinking. It is time for a lot of people to take early retirement. There is no guaranty that new gurus will be any more likely to get it right, but it would at least spare us the agony of listening to the same people taking absolutely opposite positions days apart. And, it just might be that new and wiser people, confident in their skin, could be more honest with the rest of us – honest enough to say they just had no real idea, that we were in a new game with new rules that no one had yet figured out.